Reflections on the revolution of geopolitics the past decade from a Finnish point of view.
★★★☆☆
Review of The Triangle of Power by Alexander Stubb
Most of the book is high level abstractions on changing international relations post-Trump, post invasion of Ukraine, post rise of China. Sometimes Alexander Stubb tells personal stories from his youth or from his long career in foreign policy, but this is mostly to explain power dynamics.
If this book wasn’t authored by a head of state, it would be like reading an unexciting standard (European) International Relations textbook.
Stubb is a great explainer of the consensus view of international policy among Nordic Governing Political Parties. So, it’s probably an excellent intro (4⭐) for Non-European readers who want to know the Nordic view of international relations. To Nordic readers who follow the news, it’s probably not so many insights.
According to Stubb, the “Triangle model” is the future is determined by the interactions between the West (US/Europe/Japan), “East” (China+Russia), and the “South” ie the emerging powers like India/Saudi Arabia.
Highlights
— location: 187 ^ref-37743
The core argument of this book is that the forces molding our emerging world represent a Triangle of Power—the Global West, Global East, and Global South—and the interplay among these three will decide the shape of the world to come.
— location: 194 ^ref-47408
During the Cold War, Finnish foreign policy centered on “pragmatic realism.” We had to compromise our Western values just to survive, to keep the Soviet Union from attacking us again. At times this accommodation went too far; this era in Finnish history is not one we can be particularly proud of.
— location: 245 ^ref-39397
I define values-based realism as “a set of universal values based on freedom, fundamental rights, and international rules, which take into account the realities of global diversity, culture, and history of the nation states, regions, and continents that make up the global order of international relations.”
— location: 260 ^ref-19193
Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar expressed a widespread Global South view when he remarked in 2022, “Europe has to get out of the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems but the world’s problems are not Europe’s problems.” And he was essentially correct.
— location: 657 ^ref-11416
But just because democracy does not produce the results you want does not mean it has failed—probably the opposite.
— location: 941 ^ref-11186
The European Union is, of course, not itself a democracy—as those who disagree with supranational representation point out. But it is a union of twenty-seven democracies that have decided to pool sovereignty in certain areas for mutual benefit.
— location: 1005 ^ref-45298
We get talking about technology. “Why are you so restrictive toward some of the Western internet applications?” I ask. He smiles and says, “Mr. Stubb, you come from the land of Nokia. We live in a competitive world. Why should we open our markets to American or European products? We might even lose.” I realize that Chinese tech protectionism is as much about interests as values.
— location: 1194 ^ref-1857
There are three basic approaches. China centralizes data within government, which mines data without restriction for the benefit of the state. In the US, private companies can mine data, at least theoretically based on some form of individual consent. Europe puts data sovereignty first. Data ownership lies with the individual, and its use is closely regulated and monitored. The European approach is probably ethically strongest and competitively weakest.
— location: 1884 ^ref-54667
The return of war, in Gaza as well as Ukraine, has illuminated dramatic changes in the way it is fought. Where once we lost sleep over a single devastating weapon, now we must nimbly keep pace with the sheer number of available tools of conflict.
— location: 2037 ^ref-37254
My proposed remedy is to double the permanent members to ten, adding one from Latin America, two from Africa and two from Asia, plus ten seats for rotating members. Second, I propose that no single state should have a Security Council veto. I understand why this rule was established after World War II, but in today’s world it simply obstructs decision-making. Third, I contend that any Security Council member that violates the UN Charter should have its voting rights suspended.
— location: 2381 ^ref-7002
I remember my text message exchange with Lavrov. Russia has again shown its colors: imperialist ambitions and disdain for human life and international law. It is a former great power in decline, gasping for the remnants of what used to be. But as a Finn I never underestimate Russia.
— location: 2456 ^ref-51395